…Total Cases = total cumulative count (60,286)…
No, massive, no, gigantic under-count–look at the step in the graph and fill in the other dates to an approximate slope and total cases is about 160,000.
And that doesn’t take into account the less ill, or those dying at home.
I will repeat my comment from earlier today….
….The coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, Dr. Sylvie Briand, head of WHO’s Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, told reporters on Monday. About 15% of the people who contract the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care, she said….
And this is the real problem that has produced the chaos in China– the 3 to 5% needing intensive care.
For example, Minnesota, a state pretty well served by medicine has a population of about 5 million. If 50% of the people had some form of the virus, that would be 2.5 million people. Of that, 3 to 5% might require quarantined intensive care (75,000 to 125,000 people). Based upon the typical stay of at least 10 days to recover, that would be 750,000 to 1,250,000 patient-days of quarantined care required.
Well, in Minnesota in 2017, there were approximately 500,000 to 600,000 patient-days of care over the year. This was for all cases in all hospitals (non-quarantined for the vast majority).
How does a medical system serve a case-load that would go from 500 thousand patient-days to 1.25 million or 1.75 million ? Not very well. And throw in the quarantine requirements. How would that mix with the standard patient population that has the normal cancers, heart problems, broken bones, bullet wounds, etc, etc ?
Chaos is the only possible result….
By the way, Wuhan had about 6 million people after the reported 5 million fled.